CBAM shows up in earnings: ArcelorMittal and Holcim credit the border levy for pricing power

The CBAM earnings impact is now on the record. On July 30, 2026, ArcelorMittal reported second-quarter EBITDA of $2.1 billion, or $155 per tonne, and told investors that CBAM together with the EU's new tariff-rate quota (TRQ) regime "can support higher domestic capacity utilization" and restore sustainable profitability in Europe. One day later, Holcim upgraded its full-year 2026 guidance after 11.5 percent organic recurring EBIT growth in the first half, and, per CemNet's coverage, said that CBAM alongside shrinking ETS allowances "have been and should continue to be supportive of higher prices."

This is the first earnings season in which European heavy industry has quantified the CBAM tailwind. For EU importers, the results matter twice over: they document structurally higher EU domestic pricing power, and market reporting from the same week shows the mirror image, with Egyptian HRC offers now itemizing roughly $30 per tonne of CBAM-related costs.

What ArcelorMittal and Holcim reported

ArcelorMittal posted Q2 2026 EBITDA of $2.1 billion at $155 per tonne with Europe EBITDA per tonne up $28 sequentially, while Holcim raised its 2026 guidance to roughly 5 percent organic sales growth and roughly 10 percent organic recurring EBIT growth, and both managements named CBAM as a support for European prices. The two results, published on July 30 and July 31, bracket the first month in which the EU's two measures have operated together: CBAM liability accruing since January 1, 2026 and the TRQ regime in force since July 1, 2026.

ArcelorMittal backed the words with capacity decisions. The company restarted the Fos-sur-Mer blast furnace in France in late July 2026 after it had been idle since September 2023, following the April 28, 2026 restart of a blast furnace at Dabrowa in Poland and the resumption of production at Asturias in Spain. Management said order books inflected positively after the TRQ took effect on July 1 and guided European third-quarter shipments stable to slightly higher versus Q2, counter to the typical high-single-digit seasonal decline. The economics behind that confidence are laid out in the CBAM steel costs and compliance guide: a blast furnace route tonne carries roughly 2.0 tCO₂ of embedded emissions, so every euro on the certificate price widens the gap between EU producers and unpriced imports.

Holcim ties CBAM to cement prices

Holcim's guidance upgrade, published July 31, 2026, targets approximately 5 percent organic net sales growth and approximately 10 percent organic recurring EBIT growth for 2026, and per CemNet's coverage the company linked its pricing strength directly to CBAM and the shrinking supply of ETS allowances. Holcim's own media release confirms the numbers, including free cash flow guidance of around CHF 2 billion, but the CBAM attribution comes via CemNet's reporting on the results call.

The cement logic is mechanical. CBAM cement coverage prices both direct and indirect emissions, Portland cement carries a benchmark of roughly 0.83 tCO₂e per tonne, and the EU ETS cap tightens every year while free allocation phases down. A cement producer inside the EU therefore competes against imports that face a rising certificate bill at the border, which supports domestic price increases without triggering import substitution. That is the intended anti-leakage design: the mechanism exists precisely to stop production shifting to unpriced jurisdictions, as explained in our guide to carbon leakage and why the EU created CBAM.

Import offers show the CBAM cost pass-through

Eurometal's market reporting of July 31, 2026 put Northern European HRC at €715 to €740 per tonne ex-works, up €35 per tonne since the TRQ regime started on July 1, and recorded Egyptian HRC offers that include about $30 per tonne of CBAM-related costs. The CBAM cost pass-through is no longer a modeling assumption; it is a visible line inside third-country offer prices.

The offer landscape reported by Eurometal on July 31 compares as follows.

The Egyptian offers are among the first widely reported cases of sellers itemizing CBAM inside the price. Egyptian exporters have more CBAM exposure than most: the CBAM Egypt country guide shows the country also sends 46 percent of its fertilizer exports to the EU, so Egyptian suppliers are building CBAM handling into commercial terms across sectors, not just steel.

What the earnings evidence means for importers

For EU importers, the Q2 2026 earnings season delivers the first company-level evidence that CBAM supports structurally higher EU domestic prices while CBAM costs surface inside third-country offer prices. Three practical consequences follow.

First, benchmark the surcharge before accepting it. At the 2026 CBAM factor of 2.5 percent and the Q2 certificate price of €75.28/tCO₂e, the current-year certificate liability on a blast furnace route tonne of HRC works out to roughly €4. A $30 per tonne CBAM line in an import offer therefore prices in far more than the 2026 liability, which makes it a negotiating point rather than a straight cost pass-through. Run the actual figure for your CN code and origin through the CBAM cost calculator before signing.

Second, budget for the trajectory, not the snapshot. The CBAM factor rises each year as free allocation phases out toward January 1, 2034, so the gap between today's certificate liability and the $30 already appearing in offers narrows every year. The full obligation chain from authorization to surrender is covered in the guide to CBAM compliance for steel importers, and cement buyers face the same arithmetic plus indirect emissions in the guide to CBAM compliance for cement importers.

Third, treat EU domestic price strength as structural. CBAM steel prices in Europe rose €35 per tonne in the first month of the combined CBAM-plus-TRQ regime, and both producers are restarting capacity rather than discounting. Importers who assumed the pre-2026 spread between EU domestic and import parity would return should re-run their sourcing models.

Consultation opened on widening the steel import regime

Separately, the European Commission opened a consultation on July 28, 2026, running to September 28, 2026, on widening the product scope of the new steel import regime; this is a consultation, not adopted law. The four product families under review are listed below.

• Cast iron tubes and pipes
• Non-alloy and alloy wire
• Stainless wire
• Forged bars

The Commission's assessment is due by December 31, 2026. This consultation concerns the TRQ trade regime rather than CBAM's own product scope, but the two now move together commercially, and product classification is already a live cost issue: Spanish steelmakers report that misclassifying pipes as steel structures adds about €300 per tonne of CBAM liability.

What happens next

The next test of the CBAM earnings impact comes with the Q3 2026 results season in late October, priced against a Q3 certificate price that is already tracking well above Q2 as EUAs hold the €79-86 band. ArcelorMittal guides European Q3 shipments stable to slightly higher against the seasonal norm, Holcim's upgraded guidance runs through year-end, and the steel-scope consultation closes on September 28, 2026. If the certificate price holds above the Q2 average of €75.28/tCO₂e, the pass-through component inside import offers has room to widen before the next earnings calls.