The Q3 2026 CBAM certificate price is tracking well above the Q2 2026 result of €75.28/tCO₂e: EU ETS auctions cleared in a band of roughly €79 to €86 per tonne between July 23 and August 5, 2026. Five weeks into the quarter, every auction in the documented July 23 to August 5 window has printed above the Q2 price. For importers of steel, cement, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen building certificate budgets ahead of the February 1, 2027 sales opening, the third quarterly price of the definitive phase is on course to land materially higher than the first two.
One caveat frames everything below. The official Q3 number does not exist yet. It will be the weighted average of all EU ETS auction clearing prices recorded between July 1 and September 30, 2026, and it becomes known only when the European Commission publishes it in the first calendar week of October, due October 5, 2026. Two months of auctions can still pull the average around. What the July market data shows is the direction and the size of the gap so far.
Where the Q3 price stands after five weeks of auctions
The Q3 2026 CBAM certificate price will be the weighted average of the EU ETS auction clearing prices for July 1 to September 30, 2026, and those auctions have cleared roughly between €79 and €86 per tonne from July 23 through August 5. The calculation method is set by Article 22(1a) of Regulation (EU) 2023/956, inserted by the Omnibus amendment (Regulation (EU) 2025/2083): the Commission computes the weighted average of the quarter's auction clearing prices, rounds it to two decimal places, and publishes the result in the first calendar week after the quarter closes.
The table below places the current auction band against the two published quarterly prices.
| Quarter | Auction window | Certificate price | Publication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | Jan 1 - Mar 31 | €75.36/tCO₂e | April 7, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 | Apr 1 - Jun 30 | €75.28/tCO₂e | July 6, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 | Jul 1 - Sep 30 | Pending; auctions cleared roughly €79-86 (Jul 23 - Aug 5) | Due October 5, 2026 |
| Q4 2026 | Oct 1 - Dec 31 | Pending | Due January 4, 2027 |
The first two quarters of 2026 landed within eight cents of each other. The late-July and early-August auction data sits roughly €4 to €11 above that band, which is why a materially higher Q3 price is now the base case unless August and September auctions retreat below €75.
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What drove EUAs up in the July weekly reports
EUA Dec-26 futures rose 5.14 percent in the week of July 20-24 to close at €83.40/t on July 24, with an intraweek spike to €86.63/t on July 22, according to Captured Carbon's Week 31 report published July 27 and corroborated by Advantag's weekly review. The trigger was relief: the market judged the Commission's July 17 ETS Phase 5 proposal, which would slow the free-allocation phase-out and the CBAM phase-in, less bearish than feared. Advantag's July 20 review had recorded an initial drop to a weekly low of €76.92 when the proposal first landed, before the market reversed.
Captured Carbon's Week 31 report listed three drivers behind the rally week:
- Coal-to-gas switching economics sitting around €97/t, keeping allowance demand from higher coal burn alive
- TTF gas at €62.54/MWh, its highest level since January 2023
- Brent crude above USD 100 per barrel on Red Sea shipping disruption
Supply then tightened for the week that followed: Advantag's July 27 review noted that with Poland's Wednesday auction absent from the calendar, scheduled EEX auction volume for that week was down 15.1 percent on the week before.
The following week gave part of the rally back. Per Advantag's August 3 review, the Dec-26 contract ended July at €81.26/t, down €2.14 on the week, after trading a weekly range of €81.10 to €84.19. The Dec-27 contract held at €66.55/t over the same week. Even after the pullback, the benchmark closed July almost €6 above the Q2 certificate price.
What a higher Q3 average means for certificate budgets
Every euro added to the Q3 average adds €500 per quarter to the bill of a typical blast furnace steel importer bringing in 10,000 tonnes. That importer carries roughly 20,000 tCO₂ of embedded emissions per quarter, which at the 2.5 percent CBAM factor for 2026 translates into 500 certificates. At the Q2 price of €75.28 the quarterly cost was €37,640. Priced at €81.26, the level where Dec-26 EUAs closed July per Advantag, the identical shipment would cost €40,630, about €3,000 more. That is an illustration, not a forecast: only the published weighted average counts.
Three preparation steps follow for compliance teams:
- Model the 2026 liability with a Q3 scenario range of €79 to €86 rather than the €75.32 average of the two published quarters, using the CBAM cost calculator to test both ends.
- Plan cash for the February 1, 2027 opening of certificate sales, when CBAM certificates can first be bought against the 2026 liability due with the September 30, 2027 declaration.
- Track the official publication through the CBAM certificate price tracker, which carries the live ETS price; the price tracker tool offers email alerts when each new quarterly figure is published.
The mechanics of buying, holding, and surrendering are themselves under review: 65 organizations told the Commission the certificate rules need fixing in the consultation closing this week. For the longer horizon, the CBAM certificate price forecast for 2027 collects what analysts expect once pricing switches to weekly averages under Article 22(1) from January 1, 2027.
Analysts: the Phase 5 proposal barely helps importers near-term
Experts told Carbon Pulse on August 3 that the proposed slowdown of the free-allocation phase-out for CBAM sectors will not significantly cut importers' CBAM costs, though it may matter more for traders of affected goods. The July 17 package remains a proposal: it binds no one until the European Parliament and the Council adopt it, and the CBAM factor for 2026 stays at 2.5 percent either way.
An OPIS/McCloskey analysis dated August 3, republished by Eurometal, put numbers on the proposal. It calculated that free allocation would stand at 59 percent in 2030 versus the 51.5 percent currently legislated, and at 27 percent in 2033 versus 14 percent. The current schedule is mapped in the free allocation phase-out guide. Yet analyst Benjamin Steven argued the relief misses the real cost drivers: exposure to default emissions values, EUA price forecasts above €200/t after 2033, misclassification risk of the kind UNESID quantified at about €300 per tonne for steel pipes, and more than 70 EU trade defense instruments layered on top. His conclusion, in the analysis Eurometal republished, was that initial costs under CBAM remain "prohibitive in many cases" for steel import routes regardless of the factor relaxation.
UK price gap widens as the linkage summit slips
UK ETS Dec-26 allowances stood at £59.09/t on August 3, 2026, per Prestige Business Energy's market update of that date, after Captured Carbon's Week 31 report had recorded the contract closing the week of July 20-24 at £59.83/t with the UKA discount to EUAs widening to €13.29/t. The UK-EU summit expected to settle ETS linkage slipped past the summer, though Captured Carbon reported agreement is still expected before year-end. Until linkage is in force, importers moving goods through both regimes face the exposure mapped in the UK CBAM and EU CBAM double-payment guide, and a UKA-EUA spread running in the €12 to €13 range changes the arithmetic of that exposure quarter by quarter.
What happens next
The Commission publishes the Q3 2026 certificate price in the first week of October, due October 5, 2026. August and September auction results will decide where in, or below, the €79-86 band the weighted average settles. The Q4 2026 price follows on January 4, 2027, closing out the four quarterly inputs to the first annual declaration. For the full compliance chain from authorization to surrender, read the EU CBAM guide.