The official Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price is €75.28/tCO₂e, published by the European Commission in July 2026. This single number, the weighted average of all EU ETS auction clearing prices from April to June 2026, determines import costs for steel, cement, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen entering the EU. It follows the Q1 2026 price of €75.36/tCO₂e, published April 7, 2026 — the first official CBAM certificate price in history. Understanding how the price is set, where it has been, and where it is projected to go is the foundation of any CBAM compliance cost model.
The price formula itself is straightforward. The implications for cost planning are not.
How Is the CBAM Certificate Price Calculated?
The CBAM certificate price equals the weekly average of EU ETS auction closing prices, as established by Article 21 of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 and detailed in Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2548. For calendar year 2026, a transition provision applies: the price uses the quarterly average of EU ETS auction clearing prices rather than the weekly average. Weekly pricing takes effect from January 1, 2027, under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2548; certificate sales themselves begin separately on February 1, 2027.
The European Commission publishes the applicable price through the CBAM Registry. Importers who are authorized CBAM declarants use this published price to determine the value of certificates they must hold and surrender. No independent CBAM carbon market exists. The price has one source only: the EU ETS.
This design is deliberate. The EU ETS, established under Directive 2003/87/EC, imposes a carbon cost on around 10,000 installations within the EU. CBAM extends an equivalent cost signal to the embedded emissions of imported goods. The mechanism is not a tariff or border tax. It is a certificate-based system that equalizes the carbon cost between EU-produced and imported goods by pricing imports at the same carbon rate domestic producers face through ETS compliance.
To understand how the EU ETS itself determines its auction clearing prices, the EU ETS price formation section covers the structural mechanics, cap trajectories, and Market Stability Reserve adjustments that drive the number CBAM tracks.
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What Is the Current CBAM Certificate Price in August 2026?
The official Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price is €75.28/tCO₂e, published by the European Commission in July 2026. This is the weighted average of all EU ETS auction clearing prices from April to June 2026 — essentially flat against the Q1 2026 average of €75.36/tCO₂e, published April 7, 2026. The Q1 2026 price range was €66 to €90/tCO₂, reflecting significant volatility across that quarter.
Price dynamics shifted during Q2 2026. Member State Recovery and Resilience Facility (MS-RRF) allowance auctions were suspended from June 23, 2026 after cumulative REPowerEU sales reached the €8 billion revenue target, cutting the EU CAP3 per-auction volume from 3,198,500 to 2,817,500 EUA through August 31, 2026. Against that tighter supply backdrop, the EU ETS spot price climbed from around €74/tCO₂ in late April to above €80/tCO₂ by June, with the December 2026 futures contract settling at €81.57 on June 23 — a four-month high. Because the quarterly certificate price averages the full April-to-June auction window, the published €75.28/tCO₂e figure sits below that late-quarter spot spike.
The upward drift extended into late July and early August. The December 2026 EUA futures contract spiked to €86.63/tCO₂ intraweek on July 22 and closed July 24 at €83.40, up 5.14% week on week, as the market judged the Commission's July 17 ETS Phase 5 revision proposal less bearish than feared; it then settled to €81.26 by July 31, per the Captured Carbon Week 31 review and Advantag's weekly market reviews. EU ETS auctions across July 23 to August 5 cleared in a band of roughly €79 to €86/tCO₂, well above the Q2 certificate price of €75.28/tCO₂e. Because the Q3 2026 certificate price will average the full July-to-September auction window, the auction levels recorded so far point to a materially higher Q3 price, due for publication on October 5, 2026. That developing gap is tracked in Q3 CBAM certificate price tracking above Q2.
Mid-August trading has held those levels. The December 2026 EUA contract closed at €83.29/tCO₂ on August 7, up €2.03 week on week per Advantag's weekly market review, and traded near €82.01/tCO₂ on August 14 per TradingEconomics data (€82.74 on August 13, per Prestige). Across August 6 to 15, the contract stayed in a band of roughly €81 to €84/tCO₂. Two supply-side factors underpin the firmness: the benchmark Dutch TTF gas price traded around €60/MWh on August 12, its highest level since July 24, and EU gas storage stood at 59.12% of capacity, a historic low for August, per GIE data. Looking beyond the quarter, the Market Stability Reserve will absorb 190,494,202 allowances between September 2026 and August 2027, cutting auction supply from September onward. On a quarter-to-date basis, Q3 2026 auction settlements are running roughly €6 to €8/tCO₂ above the Q2 certificate price of €75.28/tCO₂e; that figure is a cbamguide.com estimate derived from published auction settlements, not an official Commission number. The mid-quarter position is assessed in Q3 CBAM certificate price mid-quarter check.
CBAM has no mechanism to smooth or buffer this volatility. A week that sees ETS prices spike sharply higher immediately feeds into a higher CBAM certificate price once the next quarterly average is published. For compliance planning, using a single point estimate of €75/tCO₂ carries risk. Planning across a scenario range of €65 to €95/tCO₂ for the remainder of 2026 is more defensible given the upward move in spot prices since Q1.
Historical EU ETS Price: The Foundation of CBAM Cost History
The EU ETS price history determines every meaningful data point in CBAM cost history. The five price eras below represent the full range an importer would have faced had CBAM been in force from 2018.
The table below shows EU ETS price ranges by year alongside the implied gross CBAM certificate cost for blast furnace steel (BF-BOF, emission factor 2.0 tCO₂/t), Portland cement (emission factor 0.83 tCO₂/t), and primary aluminium (emission factor 1.5 tCO₂/t).
| Period | ETS Price Range | BF-BOF Steel (€/t) | Portland Cement (€/t) | Primary Aluminium (€/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | €10–20/tCO₂ | €20–40 | €8.30–16.60 | €15–30 |
| 2019–2020 | €20–30/tCO₂ | €40–60 | €16.60–24.90 | €30–45 |
| 2021 | €30–60/tCO₂ | €60–120 | €24.90–49.80 | €45–90 |
| Early 2022 | €60–80/tCO₂ | €120–160 | €49.80–66.40 | €90–120 |
| Early 2023 | ~€100/tCO₂ | ~€200 | ~€83 | ~€150 |
| 2023–2025 | €50–90/tCO₂ | €100–180 | €41.50–74.70 | €75–135 |
| Q1 2026 | €66–90/tCO₂ | €132–180 | €54.78–74.70 | €99–135 |
All costs above are gross figures, before the free allocation adjustment. In 2026, the CBAM factor is 2.5%, meaning the net payable obligation equals gross cost × 2.5%. Net 2026 CBAM cost for BF-BOF steel at the official Q1 2026 price of €75.36/tCO₂ equals approximately €3.77/t.
The early 2023 peak of €100/tCO₂ holds significance as the highest EU ETS price ever recorded. Importers planning multi-year CBAM exposure should treat that level as a plausible ceiling scenario given structural cap tightening, not as an anomaly to be discounted.
How CBAM Certificate Prices Will Change Through 2034
The CBAM certificate price tracks the ETS price at all times, but the effective cost to importers is amplified by the free allocation phase-out schedule. These two variables multiply together to produce the actual financial obligation.
The phase-out schedule runs as follows. The six cost projections below use analyst consensus ETS forecasts and the confirmed CBAM factor schedule from Article 10a(1a) of ETS Directive 2003/87/EC, as amended.
The 4 key cost escalation milestones for BF-BOF steel importers are listed below:
- 2026: CBAM factor 2.5%, gross cost at €75/tCO₂ = €150/t, net payable = €3.75/t
- 2028: CBAM factor 10%, ETS consensus ~€80/tCO₂, gross = €160/t, net = €16/t
- 2030: CBAM factor 48.5%, ETS consensus ~€100–150/tCO₂, gross = €200–300/t, net = €97–145.50/t
- 2034: CBAM factor 100%, free allocation fully phased out, net equals gross at prevailing ETS price
The 2029 to 2030 jump represents the most abrupt escalation in the entire schedule. The CBAM factor moves from 22.5% to 48.5% in a single year. Steel importers paying €3.50/t net in 2026 face a projected €97 to €145.50/t net obligation in 2030 at consensus ETS price assumptions. That is a 27 to 41 times increase in net cost over four years.
Certificate purchases and the full surrender process form the operational layer through which this cost materializes. The mechanics of CBAM certificate purchase and surrender govern when, how much, and in what form the financial obligation is settled.
What Drives the ETS Price Higher or Lower?
The EU ETS price, and therefore the CBAM certificate price, responds to five structural and cyclical drivers.
The 5 primary ETS price drivers are listed below:
- Annual cap reduction: Under the revised ETS Directive, the cap decreases by approximately 4.3% per year from 2024. Fewer allowances in circulation structurally supports higher prices over time.
- Market Stability Reserve (MSR): The MSR automatically removes excess allowances from the market when the total number in circulation exceeds 833 million. MSR operations in 2022 and 2023 contributed to price stability near €80 to €100/tCO₂.
- Energy price dynamics: When gas prices are high, coal becomes relatively cheaper for power generation, increasing demand for ETS allowances from electricity generators. The 2022 energy crisis contributed directly to the spike toward €100/tCO₂.
- Industrial production levels: Lower EU industrial output reduces ETS compliance demand, placing downward pressure on prices. The 2019 to 2020 period and the post-COVID demand recovery both reflect this dynamic.
- Political reform signals: Formal calls from member states to modify the ETS, or signals from the Commission about MSR adjustments, introduce volatility even before any rule change is enacted. Ten EU member states' Q1 2026 "existential risk" warning was one example; another came when the Commission published its ETS Phase 5 revision proposal on July 17, 2026, and EUA futures rallied in the following week as the market judged the proposal less bearish than feared. Markets also continue to weigh prospects for UK-EU ETS linkage.
Is the CBAM Price the Same as the EU ETS Price?
The CBAM certificate price and the EU ETS allowance spot price are related but not identical. The EU ETS has two markets: the auction market (where allowances are sold by member states to compliance installations) and the secondary market (where allowances trade between participants). The CBAM certificate price follows the auction clearing average, not the secondary market spot price.
In practice, the two prices move closely together. Auction clearing prices and secondary market prices remain tightly arbitraged because ETS installations can acquire allowances in either market. The spread between auction price and secondary spot price is typically €1 to €3/tCO₂. This means tracking public ETS spot price data, such as from ICE Futures Europe or Bloomberg, gives a reasonable real-time proxy for the next CBAM quarterly average, but the exact figure is set by the Commission's published calculation.
The CBAM price tracker tool on this site displays the current applicable quarterly average, updated following each Commission publication.
How Does the CBAM Price Affect Your Import Costs?
CBAM certificate cost depends on the certificate price, the embedded emissions of the imported goods, and the CBAM factor applicable in that year. The formula is: Net CBAM obligation = (Embedded emissions in tCO₂e) × (CBAM certificate price) × (CBAM factor).
For the EU CBAM mechanism to impose a meaningful cost in 2026, an importer needs a large enough volume above the 50-tonne annual mass de minimis threshold and product-specific emission factors high enough to register.
Three representative import scenarios at the official Q2 2026 price of €75/tCO₂ (rounded) and the 2026 CBAM factor of 2.5% are illustrated below:
- 1,000 tonnes of BF-BOF steel: 1,000 × 2.0 tCO₂/t × €75 × 2.5% = €3,750 net CBAM cost
- 500 tonnes of Portland cement: 500 × 0.83 tCO₂/t × €75 × 2.5% = €778 net CBAM cost
- 200 tonnes of primary aluminium: 200 × 1.5 tCO₂/t × €75 × 2.5% = €562.50 net CBAM cost
These figures reflect the 2026 position only. The same 1,000-tonne BF-BOF steel import at a 2030 CBAM factor of 48.5% and an ETS price of €100/tCO₂ produces a net cost of €97,000, compared to €3,750 in 2026. The cost remains modest today. The planning horizon is not.
What CBAM Price Should You Use for Compliance Planning?
Planning Your CBAM Certificate Budget for 2026 and Beyond
Effective CBAM budget planning requires four inputs: the current applicable certificate price, embedded emissions data for each imported product, the CBAM factor for each planning year, and an ETS price scenario range.
What Is the Right ETS Price Scenario to Use?
Use a minimum of three ETS price scenarios, not a single point estimate. The scenarios recommended for 2026 to 2030 compliance planning are:
- Conservative: €60/tCO₂ (below the current 2026 quarterly average of ~€75/tCO₂; reflects ETS reform downside risk)
- Base: €80/tCO₂ (reflects structural cap tightening with no major MSR change)
- Stress: €120/tCO₂ (reflects tighter supply and higher energy price environment; within historical range)
Analyst consensus from BNEF, Refinitiv, and Wood Mackenzie (2024 to 2025 cycle) places the 2027 ETS price in the €80 to €100/tCO₂ range and the 2030 price near €100 to €150/tCO₂. A more recent Reuters poll of 10 analysts, published April 30, 2026, cut its 2026 average EUA forecast to €80.61/tCO₂ (down from €92.65 in a January 2026 poll) and its 2027 average to €93.29/tCO₂ (down from €107.29), citing ETS policy uncertainty and demand-side pressure — a downward revision that still sits within the Base scenario above. Using a base case below €80/tCO₂ for multi-year planning is not defensible against historical and structural data. The full CBAM certificate price forecast for 2027 breaks down why analysts cut their estimates and what could move the number again before certificate sales open in February 2027.
Does the CBAM Price Affect the Annual Declaration?
The CBAM certificate price at declaration time determines the number of certificates an authorized declarant must surrender. Each certificate equals 1 tonne of CO₂e. The number of certificates required equals the total verified embedded emissions of all CBAM goods imported during the preceding calendar year, minus any reductions for carbon prices paid in the third country under Article 9 of Regulation (EU) 2023/956. The first CBAM annual declaration covers calendar year 2026 and is due September 30, 2027.
The price used for this surrender is not the price at the time of surrender. Importers must purchase and hold certificates throughout the year at the current quarterly price. Certificates held at surrender must equal 100% of total annual embedded emissions. Certificate quantities may not be retroactively repriced; the cost is realized at the price prevailing when each certificate was purchased.
Can You Reduce Your CBAM Certificate Obligation?
Reduce the certificate obligation in three ways. First, the embedded emissions calculation using actual verified data rather than default values produces a lower obligation when the supplying installation is cleaner than the default. Second, Article 9 deductions apply when the exporting producer has paid a legally binding domestic carbon price. Third, certificates can be purchased up to the quarterly holding requirement minimum rather than in a single lump sum, allowing partial price averaging across the quarterly purchase windows.
The minimum quarterly holding requirement is 50% of cumulative embedded emissions since the start of the calendar year, as established by Article 22(2) of Regulation (EU) 2023/956, as amended by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083.
Is the CBAM Certificate Price Volatile Enough to Warrant Hedging?
The CBAM certificate price is inherently volatile because it follows the EU ETS, which itself fluctuates daily. No EU ETS futures or options product specifically covers CBAM certificates. However, EU ETS allowance futures (EUA futures) trade on ICE Futures Europe with contracts up to several years forward. An importer with a known or estimated annual CBAM obligation can hedge by purchasing EUA futures, since the CBAM certificate price tracks the ETS auction average. This is an indirect hedge, not a direct one, because the correlation is close but not exact. The spread between EUA futures and actual CBAM certificate prices creates residual basis risk.
All price data cited in this article reflects publicly available EU ETS auction results and analyst projections as of August 15, 2026. CBAM certificate prices are market-derived and change with each new quarterly publication from the European Commission.