Liese sets the clock: ETS review positions by year-end, trilogues from January

The EU ETS review now has a negotiating calendar: positions in both the European Parliament and the Council by the end of 2026, and trilogues on COM(2026) 616 starting in January 2027. Peter Liese, the Parliament's lead negotiator on the file, confirmed both dates in remarks reported by Brussels Morning, the first co-decision signal since the summer recess. "This timetable is very ambitious, but necessary. The sooner we have clarity, the better," Liese said.

For EU importers of steel, cement, aluminium, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, the schedule matters well beyond the ETS. COM(2026) 616, the ETS Phase 5 proposal, carries the proposed free-allocation slowdown that would stretch the CBAM phase-in from 2034 to 2038, so this negotiating calendar is also the calendar that decides post-2028 certificate volumes. The timetable Liese described keeps the Commission's roadmap target of political agreement in the first quarter of 2027 alive.

What Liese confirmed, and who is confirming it

Liese confirmed that Parliament and Council both aim to adopt negotiating positions by the end of 2026 so that trilogues can start in January 2027, in line with the Commission's Q1 2027 agreement target. Trilogues are the three-way negotiations between Parliament, Council, and Commission that turn a proposal into a final legislative text, and they cannot begin until both co-legislators have fixed their positions.

The confirmation carries weight because of who gave it. Liese, a German MEP from the EPP group, was appointed ENVI rapporteur for the ETS revision in mid-July 2026, which makes him the person who will steer the Parliament's position on the file and then negotiate it in trilogue. In the same remarks, he framed the proposal as settling the system's future: "It is now clear that emissions trading, the world's most important climate protection tool, is here to stay." On the slower schedule for industry, he added: "We want to give industry more time, but during this period, they must not sit back and do nothing; instead, they must prepare the specific investments."

Why the ETS calendar is the CBAM phase-in calendar

COM(2026) 616, published on July 17, 2026, would reintroduce 15 percent of the phased-out free allocation for CBAM sectors from 2028 and extend the free-allocation phase-out from 2034 to 2038, directly slowing the CBAM phase-in if adopted. Certificate volumes track free allocation one to one: each year's CBAM factor mirrors the EU ETS free allocation phase-out, and an importer's annual obligation equals verified embedded emissions multiplied by that factor. Whatever the negotiation produces, an agreed slowdown, an amended one, or no deal and the current 2034 schedule, sets the factors importers will apply from 2028 onward.

The Brussels Morning reporting also restates the package parameters tabled in July: the linear reduction factor cut from 4.4 percent to 3.7 percent from 2031 and to 1.7 percent from 2036, an exemption from the investment conditionality rules for the lowest-emitting 10 percent of installations, and zero-emission companies staying in the ETS until 2040. The full proposal breakdown, including the free-allocation mechanics, is in our coverage of the ETS Phase 5 revision that slows the CBAM phase-in. Every one of those elements remains a proposal until Parliament and Council agree a text and adopt it.

The co-decision calendar in one table

Six checkpoints now define the file's path from proposal to agreement, and only the first two are completed facts. The table below separates what has happened from what is targeted or reported.

Where the Council stands: ten member states and a September compromise

Ten member states consider the proposal not extensive enough, according to Agence Europe reporting of August 1, and the Irish Council presidency could table a first compromise text in September. The ten are Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. That reporting dates from before the recess, so the first hard read on the Council's real distance from the Commission text comes when the working parties resume in September. A September compromise would leave the presidency roughly three months to build a general approach before Liese's end-of-year deadline.

The file is moving through a crowded political environment. The same week brought a 500-signatory demand for downstream CBAM expansion backed by a protest convoy heading for Brussels and an Irish farmers' demand to suspend CBAM on nitrogen fertiliser. Both target the parallel CBAM review rather than the ETS file, but they define the pressure the trilogues will inherit, alongside the industry battle lines drawn before the September plenary.

What the timetable means for importers modelling post-2028 costs

Nothing in the current 2026 and 2027 CBAM obligations changes while the ETS review is negotiated, and analysts told Carbon Pulse on August 3 that the proposed free-allocation slowdown would not significantly cut importers' near-term CBAM costs. Four fixed points stand throughout the negotiation:

• The CBAM factor stays at 2.5 percent for 2026 imports and 5 percent for 2027 imports.
• Certificate sales open on February 1, 2027.
• The first annual declaration, covering calendar year 2026, remains due September 30, 2027.
• Certificate prices continue to track the EU ETS auction average, whatever happens to free allocation.

For 2028 onward, the timetable converts an open-ended uncertainty into a dated one. An importer budgeting certificate costs can treat the current free allocation phase-out schedule as the ceiling scenario and the proposed 2038 schedule as the floor, knowing the gap between them is scheduled to close in the first quarter of 2027 rather than drifting for years. Certificate volumes are only half of the cost equation; the price half runs through the CBAM certificate price forecast 2027, and both halves feed the CBAM cost calculator for scenario modelling.

What happens next

Three checkpoints between now and January will show whether the timetable holds. Each has a date attached:

1. September 2026: Council working parties resume, with a first Irish presidency compromise possible per the pre-recess Agence Europe reporting; on the Parliament side, Liese's draft report in ENVI is the marker to watch.
2. End of 2026: both institutions are due to have negotiating positions, the condition for trilogues to start on time.
3. January 2027: trilogues open if the positions land, with the Commission's Q1 2027 agreement target as the closing marker.

If the calendar slips, the CBAM phase-in question slips with it, and the current schedule stays the planning baseline for longer. Every confirmed date, and only confirmed dates, lives in the CBAM timeline; it changes if and when COM(2026) 616 is adopted.