CBAM Cost Calculator: 2026–2034 Certificate Obligation Forecast
Select the country of origin and the good by CN code, enter the annual tonnage, and the calculator applies the legal formula to the official default values and benchmarks. It shows certificates and cost for each year from 2026 to 2034, starting from the latest official CBAM certificate price. Download the result as a free PDF cost report, generated instantly in your browser, no email address required.
Your import
Carbon price paid in the country of origin (optional, Article 9)
Enter your import to see the calculation
Select the country of origin.
How the CBAM Cost Calculator Works
The calculator applies the method of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 and its implementing acts. For each tonne it takes the default value for total emissions that Annex I prints for the country of origin and the CN code, and adds the mark-up. It then deducts the free allocation adjustment: the CBAM factor, times the cross-sectoral correction factor, times the Column B benchmark. What remains, never less than zero, is the number of certificates per tonne. Multiplied by the tonnage and the certificate price, that is the cost.
The CBAM factor is the share of EU ETS free allocation still granted under Article 10a(1a) of Directive 2003/87/EC: 97.5% in 2026, 95% in 2027, 90% in 2028, 77.5% in 2029, 51.5% in 2030, 39% in 2031, 26.5% in 2032, 14% in 2033 and none from 2034. As the factor falls, less is deducted and the cost per tonne rises.
Example: semi-finished steel under CN 7207 11 14 from Türkiye has a default value of 2.310 tCO2e per tonne and the route letter (C), carbon steel from the blast furnace route. With the 2026 mark-up of 10% that is 2.541. The benchmark for that route is 1.364, so the adjustment is 0.975 x 1.364 = 1.3299. That leaves 1.2111 certificates per tonne, or EUR 99.70 per tonne at the official price of EUR 82.32 for the third quarter of 2026. Open this example in the calculator.
The PDF report has six sections, from your inputs to the sources and assumptions. The CBAM cost model template page describes each section. To run this calculation across many suppliers and shipments, the CBAM software directory compares the tools built for it.
Where the numbers come from
Default values and production routes come from Annex I to Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621, as replaced by Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1740: 122 tables, one per country plus "Other countries and territories". Where a country has no table, or its row shows a dash, the value of the "Other" table applies, and the calculator says so next to the result. The mark-up is 10% for 2026, 20% for 2027 and 30% from 2028, and 1% for fertilizers.
Benchmarks come from point 5.3 of the Annex to Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620: 570 CN codes, with one set of values for 2026 to 2027 and one for 2028 to 2030. With default values the importer does not choose the production route: the route letter printed in the country's Annex I row selects the benchmark. The cross-sectoral correction factor is 100% for 2026 to 2030 under Implementing Decision (EU) 2026/1862.
The certificate price field starts from the latest official price published by the European Commission. For goods imported in 2026 that price is a quarterly average of EU ETS auction prices (Article 21(1a)); from 2027 it is set per calendar week (Article 21(1)). You can overwrite it to model a scenario. Electricity follows its own path: the emission factor of Annex III to Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2621, with no mark-up and no free allocation adjustment.
Default values vs. actual emission data
A declaration on default values needs no verifier, but the default carries the mark-up. Grey Portland cement from Türkiye shows how the tables work: the Türkiye row for CN 2523 29 00 shows a dash, so the "Other countries and territories" value of 1.440 applies. With the 2026 mark-up that is 1.584. Less 0.975 x 0.666 for the benchmark, about 0.935 certificates per tonne remain, or EUR 76.94 per tonne at EUR 82.32. Open this example.
With verified actual emissions the mark-up falls away and the importer declares the installation's own figure. The calculator can only estimate that case. Under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620 the adjustment then starts from the Column A process benchmark and adds the adjustment embedded in the precursors, which depends on the supply chain. The tool deducts the Column B benchmark of the route you select instead, and labels every such figure an estimate.
What the calculator assumes for 2031 to 2033
Benchmarks and the cross-sectoral correction factor are set for 2026 to 2030 only. For 2031 to 2033 the calculator keeps the 2028 to 2030 benchmark and assumes a correction factor of 100%; the CBAM factor for those years is fixed by the Directive. These rows are marked as assumed and kept out of the 2026 to 2030 total. From 2034 no CBAM factor applies, so nothing is deducted.
Recital 10 of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/2620 announces updated benchmarks for goods imported from January 1, 2027. None had been published when the tables were built on October 12, 2026, so the figures for 2027 to 2030 use the benchmarks in force today.
What the calculator cannot do
The result is an estimate built on the official default values and benchmarks (Implementing Regulations (EU) 2025/2621 and 2025/2620); the binding figure is the one in your CBAM declaration. The tool works with one good, one country of origin and one certificate price for every year, while the official price changes each quarter in 2026 and each week from 2027.
The reduction for a carbon price paid in the country of origin (Article 9) is offered as an optional input and is hypothetical: as of October 12, 2026 the implementing act is still a draft and no country's carbon price has been recognised. Whole certificates are rounded up for each year. That is the calculator's convention, because the Regulation has no rounding rule for certificates.
Certificate purchases and the quarterly holding requirement
CBAM certificate sales open February 1, 2027. From 2027, the certificates on an importer's account at the end of each quarter must correspond to at least 50% of the embedded emissions in the goods imported since the beginning of the calendar year, after the adjustment for free allocation (Article 22(2)). The annual declaration and surrender is due September 30 each year, covering the prior calendar year's imports.
On request, excess certificates left on the account after surrender are repurchased at the price the importer paid. The request is due by October 31 of the year of surrender. Article 23(2) limits the number repurchased to the total number of certificates the importer had an obligation to purchase under Article 22(2) during the calendar year of their purchase. Certificates purchased in 2027 for 2026 emissions may only be repurchased in 2027.
On November 1 of each year the Commission cancels, without compensation, certificates purchased during the year before the previous calendar year that remain on the account (Article 24(1)). Certificates purchased for 2026 emissions are cancelled on November 1, 2027.
The de minimis threshold
An importer is exempt from CBAM obligations in a calendar year in which the net mass of its imported CBAM goods does not cumulatively exceed 50 tonnes (Article 2a). The threshold applies to the total net mass under all CN codes per importer, not per product, and the exemption never applies to imports of electricity or hydrogen (Article 2a(4)). If you import 30 tonnes of steel and 25 tonnes of cement, your combined 55 tonnes exceeds the threshold and all goods imported that year are in scope.