CBAM statistics for 2026 show a mechanism that has moved from paperwork to measurable financial exposure: the official certificate price stood at €75.28 per tonne CO₂e in the second quarter, more than 12,000 EU importers applied for authorization within the regulation's first week, and EU steel imports fell 23% year-on-year in the first quarter of the definitive regime. Which of these figures matters most depends on the question being asked, whether it concerns certificate cost, authorization eligibility, or market exposure. This page compiles the 25 most citable CBAM statistics current as of July 11, 2026, each tied to an official EU source or a named industry report and dated to the day it was published, covering certificate prices, authorization and de minimis data, EUROFER trade flow figures, verifier accreditation status, EU ETS benchmark values, and the free allocation phase-out schedule.
The 25 CBAM Statistics at a Glance
The 25 statistics below are grouped by category, from certificate pricing through downstream product counts, with the exact value, source, and publication date for each figure.
| # | Statistic | Value | Source (date) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2026 CBAM certificate price | €75.36/tCO₂e | European Commission, published 7 Apr 2026 |
| 2 | Q2 2026 CBAM certificate price | €75.28/tCO₂e | European Commission, published 6 Jul 2026 |
| 3 | EUA Dec-26 futures, four-month high | €81.57/tCO₂e | EEX settlement, 23 Jun 2026 |
| 4 | Analyst poll, 2026 average EUA forecast | €80.61/t | Consensus poll, 30 Apr 2026 |
| 5 | Analyst poll, 2027 average EUA forecast | €93.29/t | Consensus poll, 30 Apr 2026 |
| 6 | CBAM authorization applications submitted | 12,000+ | European Commission, as of 7 Jan 2026 |
| 7 | Importers granted authorized CBAM declarant status | 4,100+ | European Commission, as of 7 Jan 2026 |
| 8 | Authorization application deadline (closed) | 31 Mar 2026 | Art. 17(7a), Reg. (EU) 2025/2083 |
| 9 | Maximum authorization decision timeline | 120 days | Art. 4(1), IR (EU) 2025/486 |
| 10 | De minimis annual mass threshold | 50 tonnes | Art. 2(3a), Reg. (EU) 2025/2083 |
| 11 | Importers exempted by the de minimis threshold | approx. 182,000 | European Commission impact assessment |
| 12 | Embedded emissions still covered despite the exemption | over 99% | European Commission impact assessment |
| 13 | EU total steel imports, Q1 2026, year-on-year | -23% | EUROFER Economic and Steel Market Outlook, Q2 2026 |
| 14 | EU rolled steel imports, Q1 2026, year-on-year | -17% | EUROFER Q2 2026 outlook |
| 15 | EU long steel imports, Q1 2026, year-on-year | -19% | EUROFER Q2 2026 outlook |
| 16 | Turkey's share of EU steel imports | 17.2% | EUROFER Q2 2026 outlook |
| 17 | South Korea's share of EU steel imports | 11.5% | EUROFER Q2 2026 outlook |
| 18 | China's share of EU steel imports | 9.9% | EUROFER Q2 2026 outlook |
| 19 | National accreditation bodies offering CBAM verifier accreditation | 24 | European Commission state-of-play table, 10 Jul 2026 |
| 20 | Accreditation bodies already accepting verifier applications | 11 | European Commission state-of-play table, 10 Jul 2026 |
| 21 | Accredited CBAM verifiers EU-wide | 0 | European Commission, as of 11 Jul 2026 |
| 22 | 2026 CBAM factor (free allocation reduction) | 2.5% | Art. 10a(1a), Directive 2003/87/EC |
| 23 | Hot metal benchmark value, 2026-2030 | 1.248 allowances/t | IR (EU) 2026/1412 |
| 24 | Average EU ETS free allocation cut, 2026 vs. 2021 | over 16% | IR (EU) 2026/1412 |
| 25 | Downstream products under the three negotiating positions | 180 / approx. 200 / 457 | Commission / Council / Parliament ENVI, as of 6 Jul 2026 |
CBAM Certificate Price Statistics (Q1 and Q2 2026)
The CBAM certificate price for the second quarter of 2026 is €75.28 per tonne CO₂e, a slight decline from the €75.36 set for the first quarter. Both figures come from the European Commission's official CBAM certificate price page, which calculates 2026 prices as the quarterly average of EU ETS auction clearing prices under Article 22(1a) of Regulation (EU) 2023/956, as inserted by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083. From 2027, the methodology switches to a weekly average of auction closing prices under Article 22(1).
What the Q1 and Q2 2026 Prices Mean for Certificate Cost
A tonne of blast-furnace steel, carrying roughly 2.0 tCO₂e of embedded direct emissions, translates the Q2 2026 price into a gross certificate value of about €150.56, before the 2026 CBAM factor of 2.5% cuts the net liability to roughly €3.76 per tonne. The gap exists because 97.5% of free allocation still applies in 2026, per the phase-out schedule below. Track the current quarter's figure with the CBAM certificate price tracker.
What Is Driving the EU ETS Price Behind CBAM Certificates
Four factors moved the underlying EU ETS price through the first half of 2026, and each feeds directly into the next quarterly CBAM certificate figure.
- Market Stability Reserve supply cuts. The Recovery and Resilience Facility auctioning track hit its EUR 8 billion revenue target on 22 June 2026 after 111,455,000 allowances were auctioned, triggering an immediate cut to EEX per-auction volumes.
- A four-month price high. The EUA December 2026 futures contract settled at €81.57 on 23 June 2026, its highest close since 10 February, per EEX settlement data.
- A widening forecast range. An analyst poll on 30 April 2026 cut the 2026 average EUA forecast to €80.61 and the 2027 forecast to €93.29, both down from January, citing policy uncertainty ahead of the Commission's ETS review.
- A shrinking Market Stability Reserve intake. The 2025 surplus indicator (TNAC) of 1,023,494,202 allowances sends 190,494,202 allowances into the reserve between September 2026 and August 2027, down from 276 million the prior cycle, a structural price support into H2 2026.
Background on how the EU ETS price mechanism itself works, including auctioning and the Market Stability Reserve, is covered in the EU ETS guide.
CBAM Authorization and Registration Statistics
More than 12,000 EU economic operators submitted CBAM authorization applications, and more than 4,100 had already obtained authorized CBAM declarant status, according to European Commission figures dated 7 January 2026, just days after the definitive phase began. The Commission published these numbers as part of its announcement that CBAM successfully entered into force on 1 January 2026.
How Authorization Volume Compares to the Statutory Deadline
The authorization deadline for provisional importing during the definitive phase closed on 31 March 2026, under Article 17(7a) of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 as inserted by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083. Competent authorities then had up to 120 days from a complete application to decide, under Article 4(1) of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/486. Applicants who missed the March deadline face the higher unauthorized-importer penalty rate rather than the €100 per tonne CO₂e standard rate. The full process is covered in the CBAM authorization guide.
CBAM De Minimis Threshold Statistics
The 50-tonne annual mass threshold exempts an estimated 182,000 importers from CBAM obligations entirely, while more than 99% of embedded emissions in scope remain covered by the mechanism, according to the European Commission's impact assessment for the de minimis simplification introduced by Regulation (EU) 2025/2083. Electricity and hydrogen imports have no de minimis exemption, so those two sectors carry obligations regardless of volume.
Why a Small Exemption Threshold Covers Almost All Emissions
The threshold exempts importers by count, not by tonnage weighted toward the largest emitters. Most CBAM-covered emissions concentrate in a small number of high-volume importers of steel, cement, aluminium, and fertilizers, so removing roughly 90% of importers by headcount removes only a fraction of total embedded emissions. Full mechanics, including how cumulative annual mass is tracked, appear in the CBAM de minimis threshold guide.
EUROFER Trade Flow Statistics: EU Steel Imports Under CBAM
EU total steel imports fell 23% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, the first full quarter of the CBAM definitive regime, according to the EUROFER Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026-2027 published for the second quarter. Rolled steel imports fell 17%, made up of a 17% decline in flat products and a 19% decline in long products.
Which Countries Export the Most Steel to the EU
Six origin countries account for the largest shares of EU steel imports in the first quarter of 2026, led by Turkey. The table below lists each origin's share as reported by EUROFER.
| Origin country | Share of EU steel imports (Q1 2026) |
|---|---|
| Turkey | 17.2% |
| South Korea | 11.5% |
| China | 9.9% |
| India | 8.9% |
| Ukraine | 7.3% |
| Indonesia | 6.4% |
Trade press covering the same EUROFER report attributes part of the decline to EU safeguard quota mechanics, not CBAM cost alone, with buyers shifting toward safeguard-exempt origins. CBAM cost still applies on top of any safeguard duty, and sector-specific emission factors for steel appear on the CBAM steel guide.
CBAM Verifier Accreditation Statistics
Zero CBAM verifiers had been accredited anywhere in the EU as of 11 July 2026, even though 24 national accreditation bodies had formally agreed to offer CBAM verifier accreditation and 11 of them were already accepting applications, per the European Commission's state-of-play table dated 10 July 2026. The 11 bodies already open to applicants include BELAC (Belgium), DAkkS (Germany), Accredia (Italy), and ENAC (Spain), among others. Seven of the 24 have also agreed to accredit verifiers based outside the EU.
When the First Accredited CBAM Verifiers Are Expected
The Commission states on its CBAM verification page that the first CBAM verifiers are expected to receive accreditation around September 2026, the same month verifier registration in the CBAM Registry opens under Regulation (EU) 2025/2083. Commission guidance on accreditation and verification is also due in summer 2026. The accreditation-body count itself moves fast: a separate European co-operation for Accreditation directory listed 23 bodies on 2 July 2026, eight days before the Commission's own count reached 24. Importers relying on actual emissions data should track this figure through the CBAM verification guide and the accredited verifiers list rather than treat any single snapshot as final.
EU ETS Benchmark Values Behind CBAM Cost Calculations
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/1412 of 26 June 2026 set the revised EU ETS benchmark values that feed default-value calculations for 2026 through 2030, cutting free allocation by more than 16% on average compared with 2021 across the 52 product benchmarks and 2 fallback benchmarks. The table below lists four benchmark values relevant to CBAM-covered sectors.
| Benchmark product | Value (allowances or tCO₂e per tonne, 2026-2030) |
|---|---|
| Hot metal | 1.248 |
| Grey cement clinker | 0.656 |
| White cement clinker | 0.890 |
| Aluminium (primary) | 1.423 |
These values derive from 2021-2022 efficiency data for the 10% most efficient installations in each benchmark group, under Article 10a(2) of Directive 2003/87/EC. The EU ETS free allocation phase-out guide explains how these benchmark values interact with the CBAM factor to determine an installation's remaining free allocation each year.
CBAM Free Allocation Phase-Out Schedule (2025-2034)
The CBAM factor, which sets the percentage of free allocation removed from EU ETS installations in CBAM-covered sectors each year, rises from 2.5% in 2026 to 100% by 2034 under Article 10a(1a) of Directive 2003/87/EC as amended. The steepest single-year jump occurs between 2029 and 2030, when the factor rises from 22.5% to 48.5%.
| Year | CBAM factor | Free allocation remaining |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0% | approx. 100% |
| 2026 | 2.5% | 97.5% |
| 2027 | 5% | 95% |
| 2028 | 10% | 90% |
| 2029 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| 2030 | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| 2031 | 61% | 39% |
| 2032 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 2033 | 86% | 14% |
| 2034 | 100% | 0% |
This schedule is the single biggest driver of rising net CBAM certificate cost through the 2030s, independent of any movement in the underlying EU ETS price.
How Many Downstream Products the CBAM Extension Could Cover
Three institutions have proposed three different downstream product counts for the CBAM extension to finished goods, and none is final as of 11 July 2026. This figure is a live legislative variable, not a settled statistic.
- European Commission proposal: approximately 180 CN codes of downstream steel and aluminium goods, such as fasteners, wire, and springs.
- Council general approach: roughly 200 products, adopted 12 June 2026, widening the list to categories such as railway material, wire mesh, and prefabricated buildings.
- Parliament ENVI committee position: 457 downstream products, adopted 6 July 2026 by 56 votes to 11 with 12 abstentions, extending scope to items including solar panels and heat pump components, under rapporteur Mohammed Chahim.
The full comparison across all three positions is covered on the CBAM downstream expansion page, including next steps toward a Parliament plenary vote and trilogue negotiations expected to run into early 2027 ahead of a proposed 1 January 2028 start date.
Frequently Asked Questions About CBAM Statistics
How Often Is This CBAM Statistics Page Updated?
This page is reviewed quarterly, aligned with the Commission's quarterly CBAM certificate price release, and sooner when a load-bearing figure changes, such as an authorization count, a EUROFER outlook, or a verifier accreditation update. The next price, covering Q3 2026, is expected in the second week after the quarter ends, historically early October.
What Is the Official Source for the CBAM Certificate Price?
The European Commission publishes the official price on its dedicated price page, calculated under Article 22 of Regulation (EU) 2023/956 as amended. Any third-party estimate predating the Commission's own quarterly publication is a forecast, not the applicable rate for certificate surrender.
Why Did EU Steel Imports Fall 23% in Q1 2026?
EUROFER does not attribute the full decline to CBAM alone. Analysts note that EU safeguard quota access currently outweighs CBAM cost as the main sourcing driver, pushing buyers toward safeguard-exempt origins. CBAM cost still applies on top of any safeguard duty and grows as a share of landed cost as the CBAM factor rises after 2026.
Are the 180, 200, and 457 Downstream Product Figures Final?
No. As of 11 July 2026, all three are negotiating positions, not adopted law: the Commission's approximately 180 CN codes are the original proposal, the Council's approximately 200 reflect its 12 June 2026 general approach, and Parliament ENVI's 457 reflect its 6 July 2026 committee vote, still subject to a full plenary vote and trilogue with the Council.
Does the De Minimis Exemption Mean 182,000 Importers Have No CBAM Obligations at All?
Importers below the 50-tonne threshold have no certificate or declaration obligation for the exempted goods, but must still monitor cumulative annual imports, since exceeding 50 tonnes at any point brings the full-year total back into scope. Electricity and hydrogen carry no de minimis exemption regardless of volume.